>> should have invested in my bank account. and c.j. says housewives of disney. that would have been funny. that does it for us. "fast money" starts back at hq. >> carl, thanks so much. four hours to go until the close. here's where we stand. dow, nasdaq and s&p mixed right now. dow in one of the tightest ranges that it's been in in nearly a year. we're talking about 40 or so points that the dow traded in a range today. there's s&p and nasdaq negative. gold and oil we're still watching both today. and both are lower. there's crude oil. just above 106. a loss of more than 1% today. gold trading down by one half of 1%. barely sitting above $1700. let's get to our fast five and top five stories we're following on the halftime show today. banking on bigger dividends. the bank stress test mean dividends could surge? shake-up at pepsi.

the additions enough to give stock fizz? we'll have analysts upgrading the stock to a buy today. he'll tell you why. gold bars in your portfolio. why you may be better off taking physical delivery of gold than buying futures and samsung slams apple and china. why the opportunity makes samsung a better buy than apple. welcome to "fast money" halftime report. lots of trade today. let's do it with vix plunging to the lowest level since july. what's it signaling here? >> you brought it up at the very top. talked about ranges we've seen. on top of that contraction we've had a steady plotting move to the upside. s&p 500 continues to push above 1350 area toward 1370. seems to be a consistent pattern that we see and watching that volatility index continue to be the leadership. we talked about it on many occasions and even sell-off days where volatility pops but that pop only lasts a couple sessions. we were talking last week.

we've had three days since january 19th where we actually stayed above 20 three times. we've never done that in succession. it does tell you something about the markets right now and there is a level of comfort at least that people are reflecting right now on the vix. >> what is the average investor who is sitting at home looking at the vix listening to you explain it supposed to take from that in terms of what their investing strategy or trading strategy should? >> i speak more as a trader than investor. i can tell you this. i have seen far more comfort going into various areas of the marketplace. seeing great movement. recently we talked about the financials. last week or two we talked about option activity on financials. we watched movement to the upside. i think what they are telling us right now is that the institutional investor is not overly nervous about what's going on in europe or maybe even some of the slowdowns that we hear talked about week after week day after day about china. >> where do you come across in terms of what markets are doing? >> the market flipped to being a weighing machine.

it started out as a voting machine six months ago. people look at cash flow, fundamentals, overall strength of the u.s. economy picking up and it's being reflected in share price. the biggest thing is the fed federal reserve trampoline. that's the biggest thing. you have that liquidity facility in there. you have it now until '14. that's going to act as a buffer for markets. >> fed meeting on tap as well. what are you looking for, if anything? >> i think it will be the same. it's status quo. they think inflation is under control. i do think there's regressive inflation. overall inflation is quite tame. i think the fed will maintain their neutral stance for right now. >> are you constructive on the market here given the fact that greece is now at least for right now in the rearview mirror, if you will. what do you feel today?

>> i feel good about this market particularly in the u.s. when i look around the d, the u.s. looks at one of the better places to invest. i have asia slowing. we can argue whether 7.5 gdp growth in china is slowing. europe looks like it's slowing. italian gdp was terrible today. all of those investment dollars funnel to the u.s. good jobs number. temporary workers were up on friday. those generally lead to full-time jobs. saw a lot of positive things happening in the u.s. i like this u.s. market. >> dr. j., you do as well. >> i do. you talked about narrowing range in the vix which is clearly at least part of it. i'll also point out that about 40 minutes ago or so we saw a pretty significant jump in the vix. and that was as bob pisani said partly due to the fact that we're doing a rollover as far as which options price into the vix and so forth. there's definitely a comfort level and fears of unknowns as

always but at least as far as the greek situation, that unknown is known and we're not so much worried about that becoming something that the boogie man in the closet and now of course it's portugal or italy or spain. >> let's talk about banks here. a big week. the fed will release stress test results on thursday. which banks will pass the test with flying colors and will it mean a big boost for bank dividends. let's bring in dick. it's good to have you back on the fast money halftime report. how are you? >> good. >> score this for us in advance. who is likely to come out on top? >> banks with a big amount of treasuries on balance sheets and have a small amount of real estate lending will do well. banks with noninterest income and a low level of interest income, the banks with noninterest income will do well. that means the three trust banks, northern trust, state street and bank will get an okay to increase their dividends

meaningfully. it means that goldman sachs and morgan stanley will get an okay to update their sheets. bank of america, jpmorgan, citigroup will get moderate increases. where it will be interesting is companies like sun trust. they have a lot of real estate and consumer loans and the fed doesn't like those types of loans. doesn't want banks to make them and therefore it will be interesting to see if they allow sun trust a meaningful increases where comerica should get a big increase. >> you look for banks as a group to show almost wholesale improvement across the board, yes? >> i think so. if you look at the liquidity in the balance sheets and look at the capital that they have as a percentage of assets, if you look at their profits relative to the past two, three, four years, you'll see that in every

case the banks have come back very, very strongly. and therefore this should be able to get a significant increase in dividends. >> dick, it's anthony. do you think any of these banks are capable of doubling their dividend payouts or in some cases tripling? >> i don't think they would do that. i think the guideline probably is 30% payouts which means that most of these banks are not going to double or triple. maybe citigroup will but that's not meaningful. in terms of will there be a meaningful increase in terms of a big jump in yield on these stocks, i don't think so. >> what about share repurchase? do you think that's also in the plan? >> definitely is. i think if you take those companies like goldman and morgan stanley, probability of a share repurchase is pretty good. i think if you look at the big banks, moderate share repurchase would be all it would be likely because i think the government really does want them to have a lot more capital.

i think the key is, however, that these dividends are now going to go up every year, year after year, for the next four or five years until we run into the next down cycle in which they'll get killed again. >> are those reasons in and of itself to own the banks or with lack of earnings power is that still give you pause on certain names in the group? >> remember, you know, people in the federal government want to do it also where they will take pretax preprovision earnings of the banking system. we had in 2011 the third highest ever on that number. if you take a look at the fourth quarter of 2011, it was as high as what you got in 2006 which is a couple years before the crisis. earnings power is there. earnings power is going to grow and bank earnings are not looking at a troubled period ahead. >> before i let you run, let's play a quick game of buy, sell and hold. let's take bank of america. buy it here? >> i'm still a big believer it

will get to 13 by the end of the year. i would buy it. >> jpmorgan? >> jpmorgan slower growth situation. should move up 5%, 10% this year. >> are you a buyer of it here? >> i think given an increase yield some stock buyback at 10% maybe increasing the price. >> and tell me about citi. >> citi i think is going to be the most active of all of the bank stocks of the big bank stocks in terms of its growth this year. i think that you'll see citi grow at least 25% this year. >> all right. you're a buyer of the three names sounds like to me. >> absolutely. >> great to have you on the show. talk to you again soon. b.k., thoughts on banks? >> love banks. one thing that goes into dick's comments is that last thursday we saw for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 consumers, households, actually starting to add debt to their balance sheet. deleveraging here in the u.s. appears to be over. that should benefit the banks. i like them here. one question i would have for

pete nagarian is whether or not i can buy the weekly options here and use this bank test as a catalyst. >> that's a great question. i would stay away from that. i want bank for my buck and i'm talking about a wells fargo where we have seen activity including last week. i would look at something like dick talked about. bank of america and citi. i don't know it's a weekly option play, b.k., but if you talk about even a month buy yourself into april, give yourself five or six weeks, i think there's still significant upside. that's what we see. >> which bank sitting here today would you go out and buy? >> i would rank them. i would say wells fargo and then citibank and jpmorgan. you need that in your portfolio as well. >> why citi so highly ranked? >> great optionality in city. dividend payout models. one interesting point, still a

lot of negative data in the housing market. that's lagging what is actually going on and you can see it reflected in the stock market. building material stocks, home builder stocks and banks. >> you make a good point. there's a positive report on the home builders yet again today. the sector as a whole has done quite well. there are others who say rather than try to get on the back of a sector that's already run allot by the banks, that's the play to make if you believe housing is coming back. >> there's a lot of private equity firms setting up funds to buy individual homes and put them into portfolios. this will help alleviate some of the stress on the banking balance sheets. that's coming as well. innovative society, the banks are healing, the bias is upwards for these stocks. >> stick around. later in the show we'll check the technicals on the bank stocks and stephen weise bought more jpmorgan today. next trade, pepsi making

management changes. former sam's club president brian cornell joining as ceo of the snack division. will this be enough to get the company back on track? bill will join us with more on that. bill, welcome to the show. >> thanks for having me. we posed the question in the intro. is this enough? >> i think it's a good step obviously. the thing is it's the worst kept secret in the industry. so i think people -- not enough in short-term. >> what does it mean for the future? >> i think she laid it out there when she spoke publicly at the analyst meeting. reinvestment back into the brands. new management in play. spending money to resurrect big

equities. if it works, she's fine. if not, she'll voluntarily step aside. >> not a lot has worked, right? >> they cut advertising spending. look back to the last four or five years, advertising is the gas that drives all of these brands. if you don't spend behind them, you won't grow sales. they are dumping a money back into the business. >> you can shuffle names in management all the time, it doesn't mean that there will be some great payoff. what do these names that are now in these positions need to do to make pepsi viable or more viable than it is right now? >> you know, i think the motion is a great one. he bleeds pepsi blue. been with the company forever. they trust him a lot. he's been given a license to reinvest behind the business. they'll invest heavily. the company has said if we can't get u.s. beverage business fixed in next 12 to 18 months, we'll get rid of it. imagine pepsi without a pepsi brand soda business. that's the game plan if they can't turn it around in the next

12 months. >> don't they need to spin-off snacks or something at this point or do something as drastic or radical as that? >> i think if it doesn't work and all this sort of reinvestment doesn't get traction, absolutely. people have to remember that about two-thirds of value of pepsi is in that frito business. the snack business. we'll see what happens. if they do decide to spin it off, you'll get a multiple on that frito business. let's see if it's reinvestment behind the business that works. >> good to have you on the show. thank you so much. bill joining us on the fast line on pepsi. >> i think i would consider actually adding to it. it sort of plays out like the conoco phillips example talking about the value. the new management if this doesn't succeed like bill pointed out, 12 to 18 months, i absolutely would expect to see that. he has a $70 target. paying you 3% in the meantime. i don't think it's too

expensive. >> i like it. i had it as hedge fund trade of the week. great analytical skills but i disagree about breaking up the company. there's too many synergies. i agree that advertising is the mother's milk of these brands the way it is in political campaigns but they should keep this company together for now and get right driver in the car and this thing will take off. >> dr. j.? >> i agree with those assessment. coke is up 50%. but as pete and anthony said, you are getting paid to own the stock here. 3% and you have that kicker -- >> it's not money going to die anywhere? i got to ask that every once in a while. >> i understand. no. 3% these days, anthony, is like from heaven since you get zero in the bank. this is a great pick by you. i think again you're paid to hold the stock and there's that potential of a spin-off in the future there whether it's the

u.s. beverage business or the snack business, which is the bigger pop. i would not sell shares here. >> all right. coming up, is disney immune to court cutting? we'll talk to the analyst upgrading the stock and we'll see which hedge fund strategies are poised to outperform in 2012. lots more halftime reports on the way. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments.

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welcome back. long-term equity strategies have been underperforming the market but is now their time to shine? what's the scoop? >> this asset class last two months is up 2% to 6% but at the time reference point which is u.s. market is up 10. as it relates to hedge funds, they are doing better than the other sectors. two reasons for that. equities are up. correlations on stocks are down. that's very good for long/short managers. the real question will be if we go back to an environment where there's more correlation and that's quite possible because we still have a lot of fed intervention. if they can have a transverse point and continue to do well if

correlations come back it will be interesting. we like mortgage backed space better but it's an interesting and positive trend for long/short equities right now. >> what parts of the market or what strategies seem to be working best and what will continue to work? >> the classic lee cooperman strategy of long/short. the old roberts short that cubs are doing well right now. long value stock. short the inferior fundamental stocks. that's working. again, the market is up 10. these guys be up 2 to 6. why wouldn't i just buy etf for the market and have that as a sector. you have to see what happens with correlations. if correlations start to converge one more time and they continue to do well, they are meaninglef meaninglef meaningf meaningful. >> time for fast fire.

check out what he said about pandora last week. >> what do you expect? >> i think they'll be good based on buying today. >> stocks getting hammered, doc. what's the story here? apparently like many others you m miscalculated what this company's business model is able to do at this point? >> whether it's this one or yelp or groupon or stocks that people trade because they can't get facebook yet, are stocks that are basically a bet. it looked to us like it would be a positive bet last week. that was exactly wrong. only good thing was i spread some options against the options i bought. bull call spread. it wasn't as painful if i just owned the stock or just owned those options outright. yeah. this was a loser. and i licked my wounds and moved

on. >> anthony? >> pete is really loving this. i have to tell you that he's making hand signs and all kinds of stuff. i just want to let you know. >> you have to be careful. he knows there could be one in the hot file here. >> if you need a family mediator, i'm your guy. >> does it change your thought on pandora as a company? >> no a lot of folks use it and use the service judge. i don't have a paid subscription but i know folks that do and the problem is just like yelp when we had that ceo on last week. they are monetizing but it's not covering the cost of the expansion. they poured so much back into the business and when your content keeps going up like it does for netflix, these guys don't have as much pricing power. >> netflix factors in our next story. it's our call of the day.

disney gaining after they were upgraded to a buy from neutral. analysts citing live sports and parks making disney less vulnerable to internet television. let's welcome the analyst to the show joining us on the fast line. welcome back. >> thanks for having me back. >> crux of the call. why did you make it? >> i think the common theme we see is there's a mispricing of these digital deals which creates this risk of what we call a vicious cycle where the pressure to get these digital revenues ultimately leads to ad revenue pressure which leads the media company to cut more deals to dilute ad revenue. we look at a tradeoff analysis. we look at basically a media company getting $27 per month per home in ad revenue. what we see now is that netflix subs watch one hour a day which means you can lose $9 of that $27 but when they are pricing these deals with netflix, you find that they are only getting about 35 cents to 70 cents per

subscrib subscriber. there's a risk here that these deals ultimately cut into ad revenues which could start the vicious cycle. disney not as dependent on that ti type of program. >> diversification of disney. when you talk about live programming and live sports on top of live programming, the parks, it makes for a compelling case is what you're saying. >> they are in later phases of a cycle that will free up cash flow for buybacks or dividends and two entertainment networks that wall street may be overlooking right now. >> let's shift the focus to netflix. you say in your note some content producers are beholden to net flicflix making it a sel. rating change any time soon?

>> i'm becoming more concerned about a potential slowdown in subscribe subscribers. they are bringing back promotion of the dvd business and talking about partnering with cable and satellite companies. i don't know why partner with someone who will demand a cut of your revenues and increase your cost because they have to renegotiate the rights. to me that is a company that may see a company with a slowdown in subgrowth. >> you have reports of various cable giants refusing to do deals with netflix. >> they smell blood in the water. >> good to talk to you as always. talk to you again soon. >> got to love disney. what's not to like when you look at espn and obviously that is the crown jewel but the theme parks, the one issue i would have with tony on that is they could be affected with higher oil. you get $4 gas countrywide, that could be a major problem as far as theme parks. it's a small portion. >> an important part. >> it's a part but the important part is espn.

work stoppage of the nba now nba kicking and you have college basketball kicking in. i think espn aspect of the network right now is killer. >> would you be a buyer of disney? >> tony is right. you get somewhat of a cushion. i like disney. content producers are the king here and disney is one of those places. i like it. >> anthony? >> i like it. i just think they got to avoid "avatar" clones like "john carter" in the future. you have to know a couple bombs like that and you get into reverse earnings momentum and then you're in trouble in short-term. >> you won't see any "john carter" rides at disneyland either. >> we'll talk about the european market close and how it may impact the rest of trading. an investment opportunity you didn't see before. fidelity's next generation ipad app lets you see what's trending around the world, as well as what over a million fidelity customers are trading throughout the day. and advanced charting lets you customize your views and set up your own comparisons.

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welcome welcome back to "fast money" halftime report. the european close happens at 12:30 eastern for the next two weeks. we moved our clocks ahead this past weekend. we have a few seconds before we do that.

european stocks have been weaker across the board. european finance ministers expected to sign off on that second greek bailout today and spain is something to keep an eye on after they miss deficit targets. let's bring in mandy drury with the close. >> european markets closing at what i like to call candy stripe colors. all sitting there on the flat line in the green but if we take a look at the big map over here of europe, you can clearly see it's a very mixed bag. the markets did on the whole start out on the green after there was renewed demand for banking shares in the region after the debt restructuring last year. greece is moved off the worry wall. markets are now focusing on other areas of the worry wall like dip problems in spain and deficit target again this year and other peripheral countries like hungary. do look at the hungarian stock index. sitting up by half percent at

the end of trade. here's the but. eu finance ministers plan to freeze 495 euros in aid to hungary tomorrow for failing to control the budget deficit. that's the first time the european block will withhold funds. in terms of individual stock movers, let's look at the world's largest watch maker swatch up by half a percent. tiffany's in the u.s. is up by just over that. tiffany's filed a $490 million counterclaim against swatch. this is the latest in these companies feud over a failed deal to sell watches together and it comes three months after swatch sued tiffany's. tiffany's for lost profits that it estimated at $4.2 billion. we'll see where that latest

volley goes. in airlines news, airbus and boeing, reportedly a ruling upheld that boeing took billions of dollars of unfair subsidies. this is the latest in an epic trade spat between airbus and boeing. that's another one we need to keep an eye on. lastly but not least, the irish times reports that u.s. airline jetblue has spoken to the irish airline for a purchase of a possible stake. i'll finish on the euro. the european report would not be complete without a look at the euro. do we have it? maybe not. i guess the report is not complete. back over to you. >> thanks so much. last i saw euro was weaker versus the u.s. dollar. b.k., i wonder what you're watching most specifically over in europe and whether it is spain now. >> what you mentioned on top is

spain is the one you need to watch. stock market down 1.25% today. ten-year bonds ticked over 5%. not a problem right now but certainly it's something to watch. i think if you don't see any type of growth strategy in europe, we will be talking about a deep recession in europe in the latter half of this year. >> next up on halftime report as we look at euro/dollar, it's higher now. 131.4 is where that trade is up. the best way to play gold by taking actual delivery of the precious metal. is that the case? kyle bass makes that case. more halftime report after the break. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures.

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welcome welcome back. tiffany trading higher and there is some unusual activity in that stock. you heard mandy talk about the story with swatch. >> you look at the stock over the last three months, six months, you can see a wide range. this stock was much higher. it's pulled back. now starting to move to the upside. look at the april call spread. traded 1.55. early this morning a couple thousand times definitely some speculation that this stock could move to the upside. talk about square footage and sales per square foot this is one of those names that sticks

out. >> the misery continues for nat gas. >> there are opportunities in the natural gas space. we have the ceo of southwest energy. you can look toward clne. we'll eventually get cars and trucks toward natural gas. >> all right. ibm holding strong above 200 bucks. >> classic momentum value situation. trading 12 times earnings. 7% earnings yield in a very low interest rate environment and it's got a very diversified portfolio now in terms of its businesses. this stock should continue to do well in an environment like this. >> next trade you have fundamental case for banks earlier in the show from dick. how did the charge look after the big run? joining us now phoenix partners group. j.c., good to have you on the show. >> thanks for having me. >> let's start with financials. go name by name here that you will talk about. wells fargo is first on your

list. >> looking at the stress test results coming out, i'm looking for good news. good news is that potential catalyst will lift the names higher. short-term right around 32. with potential good news coming from thursday, we could lift from 32 to 34 is target. 34 is a number i find very interesting because let's take a step back and look at a longer term chart of wells fargo. 34 is the upper range of that multiyear trading range. when we hit 34, this stock is looking to run. we could put $34 price target on wells fargo. it's exciting. citigroup similar situation. we're seeing a nice resistance area and we're consolidating right around 34. now, what we're seeing also is lower lows so the stock is poised to move higher. it needs a catalyst. the numbers coming from thursday could be the potential catalyst that takes this stock to

challenge july highs and 2011 highs. >> gold was weaker today as we saw earlier. throw up a chart of it and talk about it. brian kelly brought gold today. break the chart down for us. >> i agree. i'm a buyer of short-term weakness in gold. what we're seeing shorter term is a bunch of lower highs and a lot of our clients are asking should i invest in gold now. should i buy gold now which tells me there's money on the sidelines looking to enter into this name. take a step back. longer term trend for gold is intact from 2008 lows we see the trend line which 2011 we move so a stretch from that trend line. we came back recently and tested it. trend line is around 1630. i would be a buyer as low as 1630 hoping the next move takes us above 1800. >> comment on gold? >> we had that huge reversal in gold on friday when the u.s. dollar was stronger so that correlation may have broken on friday. i bought it on weakness today. you see central banks around the

world easing monetary policy. that's also positive for gold. >> that tells the story right there. where does gold go based on what charts are telling us? >> shorter term i think we might see more weakness in it before it rallies. i really want to see the 1800 level taken out. and i don't care if you play it from a risk on play. i don't care if you play it from inflation trade. stars are aligning for shorter term move lower. after that trend line gets reached, it will move higher and longer term challenge the highs in 2000. >> it's good to have you on the show. >> thank you. >> what do you think of the gold trade right here? >> do opposite of what i think because i've been wrong on gold. i don't like it. >> you still don't like it? why don't you like it? >> this is a greater theory thing where they said it's not for me to pick the best person i think is most beautiful but what other judges think is most beautiful. that's always the trade with gold. buffett will tell you the cube of gold that's been mined is worth about ten times exxon

mobile plus ten times the foreign land of america. what would you rather own over the next ten years? the foreign land of america and ten exxon mobiles or a cube of gold that will fit in your big backyard. >> right now the backyard is filled with gdx because i like the miners play in the space. >> i don't like it. i'm sure it's going higher. >> let's talk about gold more. off the 2012 low. not back to record high of almost $1,900 set last august. there are still plenty of gold goals in the market. bob pisani sat down with a dallas based hedge fund manager to talk about that precious metal. >> good to talk to you. i did sit down with kyle bass who says gold is a lot higher to go. he's a big backer of taking physical possession. physical delivery of gold

bullion. these are pure gold. they weigh about 400 troy ounces a piece. let me hold them up. that's about 27 pounds believe it or not. we'll get you to try to guess with what's going on with the weight and price. this is standard weight and purity of the gold bars in the world. it's a london good delivery bar. kyle bass relies on these requirements when investing in physical gold. bass advised the university of texas recently to take physical delivery of gold bars just like this. >> it costs you a certain amount of money to roll a futures contract. i determined that the rolling cost about 90 basis points a year and negotiated a deal with hsbc for a lot less than 90 basis points a year. we store it and insure it and we own it. it sits in the system but it's just ours. >> kyle was able to negotiate a significantly lower price to

hold the gold and didn't have a problem with the gold bouillon bank owning it for them. more on my interview with kyle bass and gold on cnbc.com. look in the top right-hand corner. these gold bars weigh about 400 troy ounces a piece. how much will this one gold bar be worth at the end of the day today? take a guess for a chance to win a prize on cnbc. tweet your guess to me. hash tag is gold bar. remember, follow me @bob pisani on twitter. the best part about this whole thing? it took a year to do this documentary. the best part was being able to go underground in the deepest mine of the world and see how dangerous gold mining is. a new found respect for the gold miners. i had to sign a release that said if you don't come out when you go into the mine, don't

blame me. tough sell but it was worth it. >> look forward to seeing it tonight. bob pisani's never been seen look inside that secret fault backing the spider gold trust 100,000 gold bars all in one place and that one place is tonight as well. only on cnbc 9:00 p.m. eastern and pacific right here. don't miss that. next up on the halftime report, the battle between samsung and apple heats up in china. tim seymour is on the fast line with the best way to play it. [ leanne ] appliance park has been here since the early 50s.

my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here. [ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line. we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door, it's us that work out here. [ michael ] we're on the forefront of revitalizing manufacturing. we're proving that it can be done here, and it can be done well. [ ilona ] i came to ge after the plant i was working at closed after 33 years. ge's giving me the chance to start back over.

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>> coming up at the top of the hour on "power lunch," sue reports live from the common fund conference where some of the world's most sophisticated investors talk about how to make money right now. plus, our focus is on financials today. the fed's stress test results are out this week. dividend increases expected after that. which banks should you be buying right now? do you know where your kids are shopping? we'll tell you which teen retail stocks should be on your shopping list. that's minutes away on a program called "power lunch." scott, i'll see you it at the t of the hour. >> that one. you know something about that. we'll see you at the top of the hour.

apple too late to capture the smartphone market in china and how should you trade it now? hey, timmy. >> how are you doing? >> good. thanks. what's the trade today? >> in samsung that's been eating apple's launch in china. part of that is just a tactical call between the two companies. samsung has run the entire gamut of price points whereas apple is priced at a higher end. the other one of china's infrastructure 3g and 4g are low penetration and it will be some time. apple made a call they will go with the two smaller network providers, chinatel and chinaunicom. china mobile is the largest carrier with 630 subs. they are only getting two-thirds of the market in the agreements they struck so far whereas

samsung is spread across the three and took that approach from day one. for china right now, samsung's approach is more successful. >> if you look longer term, is is is apple's approach problematic? if you look at apple lagging somewhere, you can only think of opportunity. >> china's market will be larger than the u.s. in terms of the smartphone market this year. it will be over -- it will be around 150 million smartphones. it will be a place that apple continues to grow. i think the brand presence in china is unmistakable but a case where samsung to me is a company that is hitting across all press points and when you look at the entire samsung company story, they are growing the top line at 17% from a valuation perspective it's cheaper pe than apple. when people talk about apple making it to a trillion dollar market cap and what holds them

back, i say it's samsung. they are making phones that meet a wider audience. they are doing it for a better price point. i think they have more room thet more room to grow. >> interesting. quickly on the bigger china picture, trade deficit six times worse than expected. give us your thought. >> i think people are not focusing that the imports were very strong. the exports came in more or less inline. the import strength was very, very good. i continue to believe china is not only a soft landing, but we're in a place where people are too focused on the slowdown there, that the domestic economy while a few years away from being self-sufficient is chugging along and there's changing the policy approach and they're being more surgical about it. people are looking for a different type of stimulus and easing than we've seen from china in the past, and you're not going to get that. that trade data was not as bad as people think. >> you're in the desk tonight? >> i am not, but i'm always here for you scott anytime. >> i'll miss you brother. >> take care.

>> sticking with tech, analysts downgrading oracle citing the threats to the business. shares are down nearly 3% on that call. i want to find somebody on the desk who is a buyer of oracle today. pete. >> i chose some interest. p if you look at the long term and the options, we see people rolling out buys for a little bit of time. it will take time. it's a slow mover, anthony. it's a anyway -- we've been together on intel and microsoft and on pfizer. >> and ibm. >> and ibm. they're continually doing the right thing, and what they're doing is making money and putting more cash to the balance sheet and trading at cheap valuations despite the fact they perform well. >> increase in challenge and growth is one of the head lines in the jeffries note. >> that's no reason to shed this stock. it has good fundamentals. this is a mid-30s price target

on a name like oracle. it has a good tail wind behind it. i think you're right. >> keep your tweets coming. we're trading them next on the halftime report when we come back. let's talk about fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 there are atm fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 account service fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the most dreaded fees of all, hidden fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, you won't pay fees on top of fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 no monthly account service fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 no hidden fees. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and we rebate every atm fee. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because when it comes to talking, there is no fee.

welcome back to the "fast money" halftime report. let's get to tweets now at closs is 16751. what to do with dell? pete, i'll give you that one. >> i would say i would not want to be in dell. i would rather be somewhere else unfortunately right now.

i see other names far outperforming, and ibm comes to mind. hewlett cannot fly itself right. those are longer term plays. >> do you have a thought on dell. you look i can you do. >> i'm more bullish than pete on it, only because michael dell is buying his stock and he's buying shares in the company. it usually bodes well when the ceo is doing that, particularly a guy like michael dell. >> have we decoupled from the classic relationship. that has your name all over it? >> i would go yes, y-e-s in capital letters. global investment flows look at the u.s., and a strong dollar is not a bad thing. >> that would be a massive tectonic shift in the way we think about the markets, right? >> yes, it would. it's starting to happen right now. the australian and new zealand dollars are week over the past couple of days. >> we get find trades around the

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welcome back. before we get to the final trades, we want to congratulate john and pete. barron's calling tra trademonster.com number one for the third year in a row. >> thank you. >> the trade like a monster event is happening march 30th and 31st in newport beach, california. tough gig. john and pete will be there. don't miss it. >> with anthony by the way. >> i'm not missing that one either. >> b.k., final trades? >> i like mohawk here, mhk. >> dr. j. >> western digital. it's up 30% in the last three months. >> western did. >> tiffany's is an interesting play. i think the stock is going higher. >> anthony. >> back to my old mainstay, which is pfizer. it's short term